Pounds - Euros See Richard Branson Join the Banking World

Virgin Money buys into retail banking
 

By Paul Hoskins

LONDON (Reuters) - Richard Branson's Virgin Money is set to enter Britain's retail banking market, spending 50 million pounds on a tiny provincial bank with the licence needed to sell savings and mortgage products.

The consumer credit arm of Branson's Virgin Group said on Friday it had agreed to buy Church House Trust in a deal that values the bank, based in the west of England, at about 12.28 million pounds ($19.6 million).

Virgin will inject an additional 37.3 million pounds of new capital into Church House, a private bank founded in 1978 by a West Country family of solicitors with ties to the banking industry that go back to 1792.

Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA), which assesses the fitness of anybody buying a bank and can block such deals, has approved Virgin's application to become the controlling shareholder Church House, Virgin Money said.

Branson, who is the country's 32nd richest person with an estimated fortune of 1.2 billion pounds according to the Sunday Times 2009 Rich List, has made no secret of his wish to find a springboard to launch him into Britain's banking sector and capitalise on the woes of a badly shaken industry.

"The Church House Trust business offers us a strong platform for growth," Branson said in a statement. "Virgin Money aims to bring simplicity to the UK banking market which has traditionally been a complex sector."

Sources told Reuters earlier this week that Virgin Money was close to announcing an acquisition that could make it the first high-profile arrival in the sector since the onset of the financial crisis.

Virgin, which simply lends its brand to financial services products that are actually provided by the likes of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) and The Co-operative Bank, wants a banking licence so that it can become a fully fledged player.

It has been pursuing a number of avenues, including applying to the FSA in October for its own banking licence and a failed approach for Northern Rock, Britain's first victim of the global banking crisis.

Virgin is frequently named as a potential suitor for a slice of the billions of pounds in UK banking assets set to be put on the block over the coming months and years, including making another approach for failed mortgage lender Northern Rock.

Other possible acquirers of UK banking assets include National Australia Bank (NAB.AX), which says it is actively considering UK opportunities, retailer Tesco (TSCO.L) and Spain's Santander (SAN.MC), owner of Abbey.

Brazil's Itau Unibanco (ITUB4.SA) (ITUB.N) has also been named as a potential new entrant, and is reported to be interested in stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds (LLOY.L) held by the government.

Other new arrivals expected this year include Metro Bank, a start-up from U.S. entrepreneur Vernon Hill, and a bank backed by UK stockbroker Panmure Gordon (PMR.L). Both are awaiting FSA approval.

Virgin Money said it had already received acceptances in respect of 65.8 percent of Church House shares.

Quayle Munro Limited is acting as financial adviser to Virgin Money while Europa Partners Limited is acting as financial adviser to Church House Trust. (Additional reporting by Myles Neligan and Simon Jessop; Editing by Sharon Lindores)

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Currency Falls - Currency Conversions

Sterling falls on weak data, election jitters
 

* Sterling falls below $1.60 vs dollar; euro above 90 pence

* Jitters as UK election campaign gets under way

* Weak UK data, Cadbury rejection of new Kraft bid weigh

LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Sterling fell sharply across the board on Tuesday on worries about a flagging UK economy and high debt levels, coupled with jitters as an election campaign got under way.

Data showing British construction activity contracted for a 22nd consecutive month helped push sterling below $1.60 against the dollar and the euro above 90 pence, as it added to the view the UK recovery is lagging that of other major economies. [ID:nLDE6040N5]

Meanwhile, investors already fretting about how the UK will tackle its ballooning fiscal deficit became increasingly nervous about an upcoming general election, which has to be held before June, as campaigning began.

They are particularly mindful of the risks of a hung parliament, where no one party commands an overall majority. Analysts say such an outcome could mean any government would struggle to enact the fiscal measures necessary to cut UK debt.

"Sterling did sell off after the construction data, but it's largely the political backdrop that is the focus at the moment," said Christian Lawrence, FX strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

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GBP - Sterling | Pound faces Big Test in 2010

Sterling faces stern test in 2010

By Peter Garnham
 

Sterling
All change: Sterling is off 29 per cent against the euro since the onset of the financial crisis in September 2007

Sterling could be in for a testing 2010, with some analysts predicting it could finally hit parity against the euro.

The UK currency is expected to continue to feel the impact of the financial crisis - but it also has to negotiate a general election which could lead to a hung parliament and a big rise in political uncertainty.

Sterling has fallen 23 per cent in trade-weighted terms and over 29 per cent against the euro since the onset of the financial crisis in September 2007.

Michael Hart at Citibank says the UK economy shares many of the unwelcome characteristics of the US economy, which was at the epicentre of the crisis.

Like the US, the UK has a prominent and over-extended housing sector, a debt-financed, consumption-driven economy and a widening external deficit financed with income from foreign investment.

Analysts warn that the pound is set to lurch lower as the emergency measures put in place to fight the financial crisis are withdrawn, the cost of those measures begins to become apparent and political uncertainty in the UK heightens.

Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets says "liquidity withdrawal" may become the buzz phrase of 2010 and the UK economy and its currency could fall victim to an excessive reduction in stimulus.

He says the Bank of England has already signalled that it does not intend to increase its quantitative easing measures any further while the UK Treasury is planning spending cuts and the general election promises to be a close race.

"None of these developments are set to favour the pound or the UK economy which has yet to recover from recession," says Mr Laidi.

"Sterling risks regaining its status as the whipping boy of FX in 2010 as these vital dosages of oxygen are removed from a still tepid economy."

The biggest challenge facing the pound, however, is the UK's fiscal position, including a large budget deficit and rising national debt.

The UK government expects to borrow an additional £707bn over the next five years. As a result forecasts suggest that by 2013-14 the national debt will reach around £1,500bn – or just over 90 per cent of GDP.

"Our reasons for disliking the pound are simple enough," says Simon Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon.

"At the heart of our argument remains the simple question of where the money will come from to fund the nation's projected fiscal deficit in the years ahead."

Mr Hart says once the UK's triple-A sovereign debt rating comes under threat, gilt yields are set to rise sharply and take fiscal policy out of the UK government's control.

He says unless the UK general election heralds a political sea-change, the UK's fiscal situation is likely to continue to deteriorate, resulting ultimately in a credit rating downgrade.

Mr Hart says the UK current account is also a weak point.

This partly reflects the diminished net income the UK earns from its overseas investments, suggesting a structural transformation of the economy that requires a permanently lower exchange rate.

"We expect the pound to drift towards parity against the euro in the next six months," he says. The pound almost reached parity with the euro at the end of 2008 when the euro was worth £0.9803. Sterling recovered in 1999, leaving the euro at £0.8878 at the year end.

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Currency Review

Quarterly Currency Review

Sterling suffered badly against the Euro in the third quarter, moving almost ten cents from the heady €1.17 levels to around €1.08, writes Nicholas Fullerton.

Sterling lost ground at the beginning of July due to poor Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and for the remainder of the month trading was fairly 'range bound', i.e. no massive rate fluctuations.

However, at the beginning of August the Bank of England increased their Quantitative Easing (QE) program by £50bn. The program was designed to stimulate growth in the UK economy, and such a big increase worried the currency markets. This had a negative effect on Sterling as can be seen by the drop on the graph at the start of August.

There is a second sharp drop mid way through August when the minutes from the Bank of England's August meeting were released. These showed that some members (including Mervyn King – Governor of The Bank of England) actually voted for the £50bn stimulus figure to be even higher, at £75bn. This rocked the market and Sterling traded lower on the back of negative sentiment.
 

GBP recovered slightly towards the end of August as better than anticipated growth figures were reported.

However on the 15th September the sharpest fall on the graph occurs when Mervyn King indicated that he may reduce the interest rate on bank reserves and warned of a long slow road of economic recovery ahead. His comments weighed heavily on the British Pound and the Euro posted gains (going from €1.14 to around €1.050) over the course of the following few days.

If you are a Brit looking to buy a French property the Euro exchange rate falls in the quarter have severely decreased your purchasing power. At GBP/EUR €1.17, a €350,000 house is just over £299,000, but at a rate of GBP/EUR 1.08 the same property costs and extra £25,000, a difference that really brings into focus the impact an exchange rate can have on a budget.

Some comfort can be taken from the fact French property prices have also dipped by 10% to 20% over the past two years. If you are selling a French property now would seem an ideal time to repatriate funds.

Nobody knows what the future holds for Sterling. However, the UK was officially in recession through the third quarter of this year, as figures showed the economy shrank between June and September. It is the sixth successive quarter of contraction and leaves the UK in the grip of the longest period of continuous decline since 1955.

Many predict the UK will emerge from recession during the next quarter. If that happens it will almost definitely help Sterling claw back some lost ground.

Nicholas Fullerton,

Foreign Exchange Ltd

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Currency - Pounds Sterling

Sterling gains broadly in thin, year-end trade

UK financial markets will close at 1230 GMT on Thursday, Dec. 31 and will reopen on Monday, Jan. 4, when sterling coverage [GBP/] will resume.

* Sterling jumps 1 pct vs dlr to 10-day high $1.6236

* Thin end-of-year volumes cause choppy trade

* Election jitters likely to dominate in early 2010
 

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Sterling jumped to a 10-day high against the dollar on Thursday as year-end position adjustments led to a broad sell-off in the U.S. currency, with thin trading sparking exaggerated price movements.

The pound also extended gains against the euro as month- and year-end flows as well as technical factors supported the currency, helping lift sterling's trade-weighted index to a 10-day high.

Many analysts believe sterling could come under pressure early in 2010, however, due to jitters about its huge debt burden ahead of a UK general election, although the currency is broadly seen as undervalued on a longer term horizon.

"Over the next couple of months the market will have to take into account the potential implications of the election and this could prove negative for the pound," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Investors are concerned about the possibility of the election resulting in a hung parliament, which may make it difficult for the government to take steps to reduce the UK's ballooning budget deficit.

At 1324 GMT, sterling was up 1 percent against the dollar GBP=D4 at $1.6225, just shy of the session's 10-day high of $1.6236.

The euro EURGBP=D4 fell 0.6 percent to a low of 88.66 pence, while sterling's trade-weighted index =GBP rose to 80.5, also its strongest in 10 days.

"This is just year-end trades. Trade is so thin it only takes a few orders to go through to cause a big movement," said UBS currency analyst Geoffrey Yu.

Technically, sterling's rise against the dollar on Thursday appeared to mark at least a short-term positive reversal for the UK currency, which climbed back above its 200-day average (at $1.6062) following positive 14-day momentum and relative strength index (RSI) divergences at Wednesday's low.

A bullish crossover by the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence oscillator -- used to gauge turning points in trends -- and a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart, were further technical signs of a positive reversal.

The rebound broke the 23.6 percent retracement of sterling's drop from its November peak, making its next technical target the 38.2 percent retracement at $1.6230, followed by the 100-day average at $1.6338.

NEGATIVE SENTIMENT

Sterling's trade-weighted index has recovered by around 9 percent over 2009, although this must be set in the context of a 24 percent fall in 2008, meaning the currency remains historically very weak.

Analysts said broad sentiment towards the currency is still negative due to concerns about a flagging UK economy, expectations that UK interest rates will remain at record low levels for an extended period and concerns about UK debt.

"Fiscal concerns are one reason people are starting to get worried about sterling, and if you believe UK interest rates are going nowhere for some time it doesn't look good for the pound," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

However, many feel that at current levels sterling is undervalued, which may give it something of a lift next year, though BTMU's Hardman believes sterling could struggle until after the election.

"Euro/sterling is probably the most overvalued and we expect it to come back over time towards 80-85 pence," he said.

Sterling showed little reaction to a survey from Nationwide on Thursday, which showed British house prices rose for an eighth consecutive month in December. [ID:nLAG006017]

A Bank of England quarterly survey also showed British lenders expect to make credit more easily available to households and businesses. [ID:nBOE002167]

(Reporting by Jessica Mortimer; editing by Patrick Graham)

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Currency Changes - Sterling Recovers

Sterling recovers from 2-1/2 month low vs dlr

* Sterling recovers from earlier 2-1/2 mth low vs dollar

* Thin end-of-year volumes cause choppy trade

* Ongoing UK debt concerns weigh on sterling sentiment
 

By George Matlock

LONDON, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Sterling recovered from multi-month lows on Wednesday, caught up in end-of-year flows and holiday-thinned trading volumes.

Earlier, the pound hit a 2-1/2 month low against the U.S. dollar and a two-month low versus a basket of currencies on Wednesday, weighed down by gloom over the economy and rising public debt.

However, traders said late month-end flows towards the end of the session helped spark a solid recovery in euro/sterling, with extremely thin volumes helping to exaggerate price movements.

Ongoing concerns about Britain's fiscal profile kept downward pressure on sterling after ten-year UK gilt yields rose above those of 10-year Italian BTPs on Tuesday. YLDS5

This year has been challenging for the UK currency. Although sterling has appreciated by around 6 percent against the euro in 2009, this was from a record low point late in 2008.

"Sterling sentiment is struggling for positives at the moment -- any positives are being drowned out by the negatives," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS in London.

By 1523 GMT, sterling was up 0.4 percent at $1.5962 GBP=D4. Earlier it fell as low as $1.5832 -- its lowest level since Oct. 13 according to Reuters charts.

"Yesterday's sharp pullback that broke below $1.5922/03 opens $1.5708 key low next. Resistance is at $1.6068," said UBS in a research note.

The pound recovered from earlier falls against the euro. The single currency traded down 0.8 percent at 89.56 pence EURGBP=D4 having peaked at 90.43 pence this session -- its highest level since Dec. 14.

Trade-weighted sterling =GBP was at 79.3 against a basket of currencies, having earlier fallen to 79.1, its lowest since Oct. 26.

Sterling was hit last week by a disappointing revision to third quarter UK growth figures, and as minutes from the latest Bank of England policy meeting were perceived as leaving the door open to further monetary easing.

A Reuters poll last week showed economists almost unanimous in expecting the BoE to leave its asset-buying programme capped at its current level. [ID:nLAG006010]

A majority of those polled also did not expect the BoE to raise rates until the fourth quarter of 2010 when they see them climbing to one percent.

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Overseas Investment Opportunites

Banks 'must lend more' next year
Bank signs
 

The FSB wants more lending to be made available to businesses

There should be more competition in the banking sector with more lending from non-UK banks made available to small firms, a group has said.

In its new year message, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) called for banks to return to their "normal lending criteria".

There are five million small businesses in the UK. The FSB represents 215,000 small firms across the UK.

The government said it was "determined" to support small businesses.

"2010 must see the route to recovery," said FSB chairman John Wright. "Small businesses deserve a big vote of confidence and the sector in turn will return the compliment with jobs, guaranteeing a sustainable recovery.

"2010 may be a general election year, but for small firms, it will be business as usual as they strive to complete the route from recession and back into recovery."

A Department for Business spokesman said: "We have extended the Enterprise Finance Guarantee for a further 12 months to encourage additional bank lending to viable smaller firms and announced that businesses will be able to continue to defer tax payments to help with cash flow as they prepare for growth.

"We are working with the FSB to offer up to 10,000 graduates a chance to boost their future employability through internships in small and micro businesses."

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Foreign Exchange - Economy Boost for British Stores

J. Lewis has record online start to clearance sale

LONDON, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Bellwether British retailer John Lewis [JLP.UL] reported a strong online start to its seasonal clearance sale, adding to signs shoppers might be out in force ahead of a rise in VAT on Jan. 1.

John Lewis said on Monday online sales rose a record 23 percent in the first three days of its clearance event, which started at 1800 GMT on Dec. 24.
 

The employee-owned group, whose in-store clearance sale starts on Monday, said Dec. 26 saw the highest ever number of visits to its department stores Web site.

Retailers are increasingly using the Internet in a bid to steal a march on rivals and capture a big chunk of the traditional post-Christmas spending frenzy.

Some analysts think clearance sales this year could be especially strong ahead of a rise in VAT sales tax on Jan. 1. [ID:nLDE5BL18N]

Researchers Experian said on Sunday shopper numbers were up 18.6 percent on Dec. 26 compared with the same day last year.

Prospects for a sustained pick up in consumer spending look less certain, however, with economic growth likely to remain sluggish, wage increases muted and more tax rises expected in order to reduce government borrowing. [ID:nLDE5BG0XT] (Reporting by Mark Potter; editing by Chris Pizzey)

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Pounds to Euros - Will there ever be a Poll?

Euro poll question revealed

Gordon Brown
 

The referendum question the UK may use if a vote is held on joining the euro has been published by the government.

The question, revealed in the government's draft euro referendum bill, is: "Should the United Kingdom adopt the euro as its currency?"

Gordon Brown announced the paving bill in his pre-Budget report speech to MPs.

Vote coincidence?

The chancellor announced in June that the UK had yet to meet his five economic tests for joining the single currency.

The government says the new bill gives "maximum flexibility" over holding a referendum if the tests are passed.

Ian Davidson, chairman of Labour Against the Euro, said the bill included a clause specifically stating that a euro vote could be combined with an election.

The five tests

The MP warned: "Plans to hold a euro referendum on the same day as a general election are another sign of desperation by the euro enthusiasts.

"In their zeal to bounce Britain into the euro, they are willing to place at risk Labour seats and votes.

"A Labour Party seeking re-election would be deeply divided in a referendum, while the Tories would be handed the bonus of a campaign in tune with the majority of British voters."

'Ruled out'

But Downing Street said the government's stance had not budged since Mr Blair was questioned about the idea in May.

He had told reporters: "I have never had the idea of holding a referendum on the same day as the general election."

A Number 10 spokesman said: "The position has not changed. It is pretty categorical in terms of ruling it out."

The timing of the draft bill's publication has prompted Conservatives to accuse ministers of trying use the diversion of the pre-Budget report on Wednesday to hide the "controversial" wording of the referendum.

Tory constitutional affairs spokesman Alan Duncan said: "The government are back to their old tricks of trying to 'bury bad news'.

"The proposed referendum question breaches Electoral Commission guidelines on fair wording. It makes no mention that the pound would be replaced if people vote 'yes'.

"A fair question would make clear the implications for our existing national currency.

"The government are using sleight of hand to hide a euro referendum fix."

'Guidelines followed'

Mr Brown has said he will reveal in his Budget next year whether he thinks there is a case for another assessment of possible UK-membership of the euro according to his five economic tests.

In his statement on the single currency to MPs in June, Mr Brown said four of the five tests had yet to be met - the one relating to financial services being the only one to get the chancellor's approval.

But he said progress on passing two of the tests - on economic flexibility and convergence with the eurozone - would lead to the remaining two tests being satisfied.

The Department for Constitutional Affairs said the question had been drafted using Electoral Commission guidelines.

The Commission - which has a statutory obligation to assess the question - will formally review it when the bill is introduced into Parliament.

That would only happen if the Treasury decided its convergence criteria had been met and the economic conditions were right for Britain to lose to the pound.

Cabinet and then Parliament would then have to approve the decision before it went out to the British people.

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UK Sterling News - A One World Currency?

One World Currency in the News Again

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner shocked global markets by revealing that Washington is "quite open" to Chinese proposals for the gradual development of a global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund.

 

The dollar plunged instantly against the euro, yen, and sterling as the comments flashed across trading screens. David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said the apparent policy shift amounts to an earthquake in geo-finance.

"The mere fact that the US Treasury Secretary is even entertaining thoughts that the dollar may cease being the anchor of the global monetary system has caused consternation," he said.

Mr Geithner later qualified his remarks, insisting that the dollar would remain the "world's dominant reserve currency ... for a long period of time" but the seeds of doubt have been sown.

The markets appear baffled by the confused statements emanating from Washington. President Barack Obama told a new conference hours earlier that there was no threat to the reserve status of the dollar.

"I don't believe that there is a need for a global currency. The reason the dollar is strong right now is because investors consider the United States the strongest economy in the world with the most stable political system in the world," he said.

The Chinese proposal, outlined this week by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, calls for a "super-sovereign reserve currency" under IMF management, turning the Fund into a sort of world central bank.

The idea is that the IMF should activate its dormant powers to issue Special Drawing Rights. These SDRs would expand their role over time, becoming a "widely-accepted means of payments".

Mr Bloom said that any switch towards use of SDRs has direct implications for the currency markets. At the moment, 65pc of the world's $6.8 trillion stash of foreign reserves is held in dollars. But the dollar makes up just 42pc of the basket weighting of SDRs. So any SDR purchase under current rules must favour the euro, yen and sterling.

Beijing has the backing of Russia and a clutch of emerging powers in Asia and Latin America. Economists have toyed with such schemes before but the issue has vaulted to the top of the political agenda as creditor states around the world takes fright at the extreme measures now being adopted by the Federal Reserve, especially the decision to buy US government debt directly with printed money.

Mr Bloom said the US is discovering that the sensitivities of creditors cannot be ignored. "China holds almost 30pc of the world's entire reserves. What they say matters," he said.

Mr Geithner's friendly comments about the SDR plan seem intended to soothe Chinese feelings after a spat in January over alleged currency manipulation by Beijing, but he will now have to explain his own categorical assurance to Congress on Tuesday that he would not countenance any moves towards a world currency.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard


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Currency Table Close of Business December 2009

Currency Table – December 2009
 

Currency Table

Currency	Last	Day High	Day Low	% Change	Bid	Ask
GBP/USD	1.5962	1.5988	1.5962	-0.02%	1.5962	1.5964
GBP/EUR	1.1085	1.1127	1.1057	-0.12%	1.1085	1.1090
USD/EUR	0.69430	0.69620	0.69280	-0.12%	0.69430	0.69480
GBP/JPY	145.72	146.43	145.47	-0.26%	145.72	145.82
GBP/CHF	1.6500	1.6586	1.6489	-0.36%	1.6500	1.6510
GBP/AUD	1.8041	1.8105	1.8029	-0.21%	1.8041	1.8051

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Currency Quotation News

Currency News – December 2009
USD – Dollar Continue to Strengthen Against Rivals

The Dollar was up again most major rivals Monday on expectations of continuing improvement in the U.S economy ahead of this week's data release. The Dollar rose to a six week high versus the Yen and traded near a three and a half month high against the EUR. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 78.059 from 77.758.

The Dollar has been gaining in recent sessions, as concerns over Greece's government deficit have weighed on the EUR as well as upbeat economic data from the U.S which is prompting investors to reassess when the Federal Reserve will begin tightening the U.S. monetary policy.

While a slow news day is expected today ahead of the Holliday weekend, the release of the Existing Home Sales at 15:00 GMT is expected to provide some volatility to the Dollar, with better then expected results intensifying the Dollar's recent upward trend.
EUR – EUR Trades near a 3 Month Low versus the USD

The EUR traded yesterday near a 3 month low versus the USD as the European Commission expressed concerns about a strong EUR. Monday, the EUR was at $1.4283 from $1.4335 late Friday and at Y130.25 from Y129.57. The U.K. Pound was at $1.6051 from $1.6127.

The Swiss Franc touched its strongest level since March against the EUR extending its advance past the 1.50 level on speculation the Swiss National Bank has relaxed its resistance to gains in the currency.

A slow news day is expected today from the Euro-Zone today ahead of the long holiday weekend, the release of the British Current Account and Final GDP at 9:30 GMT will likely provide some volatility for the GDP with
JPY – Yen Down versus USD and EUR

The Yen was at 91.06 against the USD from 91.17 yesterday and at 130.09 per EUR from 130.18. The Japanese currency received some support from a report that showed Japan posted a wider than expected trade surplus in November. The surplus came to 373.9 billion Yen, greater than the 319.2 billion Yen expected by economists.

Recent economic data released from Japan, including the merchandise trade data and the current-account surplus, is pointing towards economic improvement and an upward trend, which will likely put upward pressure on the Yen in the longer term, possibly reversing the recent losses.
Crude Oil – Oil Down on Strengthening Dollar

Crude futures fell Monday as the Dollar strengthened, offsetting gains on colder weather expectations and geopolitical worries. Light, sweet crude for January delivery settled 89 cents lower at $72.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touched an intraday high of $74.32 a barrel. The contract expired on Monday. Crude for February delivery settled 70 cents, or 0.9%, lower at $73.72 a barrel. Oil prices were supported recently by the massive snowfall in the U.S and Europe as well as geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Nigeria.

Today investors should pay attention to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Luanda, Angola, where they will discuss production levels. While quotas are expected to stay unchanged this might still affect negatively on Oil levels as supply is still abundant.

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The Economy and the Currency for 2010

by Stephanie Flanders BBC

What are the most intriguing economic questions for 2010? Here are my top four. I'm sure you can come up with others.

1. Will QE need a Plan B?

The dearth of credit around the major advanced economies has monetarists convinced that the world is heading for a double-dip. I'm not sure I agree, but the lack of finance available for the UK corporate sector is a serious worry.

As the MPC know well, buying nearly £200bn worth of gilts as part of quantitative easing is, at best, a roundabout way to ease credit conditions for British firms.

QE has helped push up asset prices, as it was supposed to to, and triggered a flood of UK corporate bond issuance this year. But I suspect the government's rather under-rated "time to pay" initiative, giving companies extra time to pay their tax, has done more to support the working capital of Britain's small and medium-sized enterprises.

At the Treasury and the Bank, they're still crossing their fingers and hoping that QE will have more impact on lending throughout the broader economy in the first half of 2010 - just as all the economic models suggest it should.

Bank of England

But behind the scenes in Whitehall and the Threadneedle Street, they are quietly thinking about a Plan B - some more direct way to channel credit to firms. Just in case.

We'll know by the spring - or summer, at the latest, whether it's needed. But whatever happens, I'd be surprised to see the Bank of England create a lot more money than already agreed. If £200bn doesn't work, it's hard to believe that an extra, say, £50bn is going to make all the difference.

2. Will Britain's showdown with the international bond markets come before, or after the election?

Everyone thinks that the markets will politely wait until Britain has gone to the polls to draw its verdict on the UK. Well, maybe.

But if sovereign debt is indeed the new sub-prime - at least where the markets are concerned - it's difficult to believe that Britain will get through the months before the election without at least one major market wobble.

Perhaps one ratings agency will put the UK on negative watch. Or investors will get seized with the idea of a hung Parliament. Or Britain will simply get caught in the crosshairs of a market panic over sovereign debt in Central and Eastern Europe. Who knows what the trigger will be. But my hunch is there will be something, this side of polling day. The question will be how the major political parties react.

3. Will the private sector finally show up for the US recovery?

For anyone outside the UK this would probably be the first question on the list. Chances are, US growth in the last three months of 2009 will make up for yesterday's downward revision to growth in the third quarter, to an annual rate of 2.2%. But the new data brought home once again how lopsided the US recovery has been to date.

All the growth that the world's largest economy achieved in those three months was due to government demand, "cash-for-clunkers", and rising inventories. And the personal savings rate actually fell, suggesting that the adjustment process for households is rather less far advanced than people hoped.

2010 was supposed to be the year when the Federal Reserve could start taking its foot off the floor, and the Obama administration could at least sketch out a road map for bringing that enormous budget deficit back down. It still could be. But if the private sector doesn't show up, the administration's going to be doing the sums for yet another stimulus package as well.

4. Will the Euro area start to look like deflationary zone?

I took part in a mini-debate about the Eurozone on the Today programme this morning. Oliver Kamm, the Times writer, suggested that, in its handling of the financial crisis, the single currency had passed it's first major test "with flying colours".

I hope so. It's certainly true that many potential disasters that policy-makers worried about in Europe earlier in the year have not materialised.

Eurozone ministers - notably the German and the French - looked into the abyss and realised that they could not afford to deal with this crisis the way they usually did. In the financial market environment of early 2009, there was no room for long months of obfuscation, followed by fudge. A clear message was sent that no country would be allowed to fail. And it worked.

But that was then. Now, Germany and the rest are pulling out of recession - even if we may wonder how strong that recovery will actually be. And that moment of solidarity may be passing as well.

I don't think that the likes of Greece or Ireland - or Spain - will default on their debt, or even come close. But the very best scenario for them, inside the Euro zone, is a long hard slog. And that long hard slog of slow growth, and savage cuts in public spending could have deflationary fall-out for everyone else.

I'm not the only one who's worried about this. Check out the interview with Athanasios Orphanides in the FT yesterday. He's a former Federal Reserve economist, now governor of the central bank of Cyprus. And he thinks there is a serious risk of "inflation continuing to undershoot".

He said "I think we can already say that we have avoided an experience as terrible, as catastrophic, as in the 1930s". I'm glad he thinks so. But as he knows well, one of the main factors that made the depression great - and global - was the deflationary impact of the gold standard. Unwilling to devalue, countries resorted to deflationary domestic policies to pay their bills, thus exporting the deflation problem to everyone else.

Europe in 2010 is not Europe 1931. Nothing close. But if policy-makers aren't thinking about the potential for a more damaging dose of deflation in the Eurozone, they should be.

So that's my top four. Not a cheery list, perhaps. But I don't know many economists who are very upbeat about the next few years - especially in the UK.

Given our past record, that's probably the best reason to think that 2010 will be a Happy New Year after all. See you then.

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Article Reference: bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

Photo: bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/bank_595getty.jpg
 

Pound at a New Low

Sterling at multi-month lows on public finance, rate view

 * Sterling hits multi-month lows vs euro, dlr, basket

* UK govt asset sales reminder of dire public finances

* UK interest rates set to remain low for long time

By Jamie McGeever

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Sterling fell on Monday to its lowest in over five months against a basket of currencies, as British government plans to sell off 3 billion pounds of assets served as a reminder of how bleak the outlook is for UK public finances.

The plans are part of a broader programme to raise 16 billion pounds and were flagged long ago, but the details will come in a session devoid of major economic data or events, leaving traders to maintain their bearish view on the currency.

A report from the consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research on Monday also said interest rates could stay at the record low of 0.5 percent until 2011, and that the pound could fall to $1.40 and possibly below parity with the euro.

With trading activity lighter than usual owing to a national holiday in Japan and some U.S. financial markets closed for the Columbus Day holiday, the euro rose to its highest since late March well above 93 pence EURGBP=D4 and cable fell to a near five-month trough of $1.5728 GBP=D4.

"We are seeing generalised sterling weakness ... once again but one additional pressure this morning may be the government's expected announcement of 16 billion pounds in asset sales," said Daragh Maher, head of FX strategy at Calyon in London.

 "Although this will help support spending and help cut debt, it serves as a reminder to the market as to just how strained public finances are, and the burden this places on future growth," he said.

For more on the government's plans to raise 3 billion pounds, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown will detail later on Monday, see [ID:LB146654].

In early London trade sterling's trade-weighted value against a basket of currencies was fixed at 77.6 =GBP, its lowest since late April.

The pound GBP=D4 traded as low as $1.5728 against the dollar, its lowest since May 21 and down 0.6 percent on the day, while the euro rose more than a third of a percent on the day to EURGBP=D4 93.36 pence, a high not seen since March 27.

The broadly weaker pound was also mired at multi-year lows against the Norwegian crown and the Australian and Canadian dollars.

But the scale of the problems facing the public finances is huge. Britain's budget deficit is swelling to a record 220 billion pounds or 12 percent of gross domestic product -- bigger than most of its peers' -- and how to cut it is a key political theme in the run-up to a national election due by June next year.

UK opposition leader David Cameron said last week that printing money -- a reference to the Bank of England's quantitative easing programme -- risked fuelling inflation if it continued much longer.

The Conservatives are tipped to win an election due by next June as they hold a durable lead over Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labour Party in the polls.

One solace for sterling bulls in the short term may be market positioning. Speculators' bets are heavily skewed against the currency, according to the latest International Monetary Market data from the Chicago futures exchange.

Andy Bolton
Currency Exchanges in the UK | Online Currency Converter

Courtesy: uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLC26782120091012?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=11564Technorati Tags: currency exchange uk, online currency exchange

Sterling Low Against the Dollar

Sterling hits 5-month low vs dollar of $1.5735

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Sterling fell further on Monday, hitting its lowest level in almost five months against the dollar

on the view that UK interest rates will remain low and that the outlook for the British public finances remains bleak.

In early London trade, the pound GBP=D4 traded at $1.5735, its lowest since May and down 0.6 percent on the day.

Earlier on Monday it had fallen to a near six-month low against the euro EURGBP=D4 of 93.35 pence and to its lowest since late April against a basket of currencies at 77.6 =GBP.

Andy Bolton
Currency Exchange UK | Currency Exchange Online

Courtesy: uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLC11717820091012

Technorati Tags: sterling,dollar,currency exchange online

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Self Hypnosis

Self Hypnosis

 

 

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Hypnosis

Self Hypnosis

How to Hypnotize

Learn Hypnotism

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Self Hypnosis - (to read the full story first follow this link)

 

Self Hypnosis

In this modern world people have mistaken the concept of hypnosis. Strangely the television hasn't helped this belief. Many think that hypnosis is meant for humour on the cabaret stage and has little transition into our daily life.

I was explaining to my young teenage children that I remember seeing live pictures of men walking on the moon back in the 1960's. Amazingly I couldn't explain fully why further visits haven't been made. But what did come to mind, and I'm sure I've said it before myself... Why visit a distant planet when we can't cure the common cold; or have answers to why our devilish ego makes us do foolish things.

Using the various techniques involved in this type of hypnosis, you can get people to do what you want them to do. These techniques can be easily learnt, if you are willing to put in some effort and invest some time towards it.

Bizarre as it may seem we dip in and out of hypnotic states each day. Understanding this and exploring its potential allows us to put flying to the moon on hold for a few decades.

Hypnosis has gained in popularity over time. More and more people have become interested in the whole concept behind this subject and how it works.

This literally blew my mind, though now it seems obvious. A hypnotist isn't sending out magical brain-waves to put other people into trance. They only help us find that state within ourselves. We are the ones that are creating the bodily sensations and thoughts. That's why the more you trance you experience the better you get at it.

Hypnosis is effective to make a person capable of controlling his mind and overcome several problems related to the mind. Hypnosis will help to interact with the unconscious mind of a person.

Most people think of hypnosis as a way of controlling someone and getting them to do things they usually would not do. Dictionary describes hypnosis as a sleep-like state or to be in a state that resembles sleep. But most hypnotist disagree with the statement that hypnosis has anything with the sleep rather they believe that it is heightened state of acute awareness.

Hypnosis then, using a hypnotists definition, is an altered state of consciousness... and in one way or another we have all experienced a light version of it - daydreaming being a good example.

Some of the hypnotists also believe it can direct their subject's focus mind and communicating with the subject's subconscious mind. The goal it to distract the conscious mind and avoid the resistance often given by the conscious mind.

Perhaps the greatest of all hypnosis secrets is the fact that it really is not that hard to learn. So many people are intrigued behind the subject and wish they knew how to hypnotize someone.

Hypnotizing others is much easier than most people think. Confidence is the critical factor for your hypnosis success. If you don't have confidence, then you will probably fail. But if you start your hypnosis practice with confidence then you will have positive attitude and succeed in this way.

This literally blew my mind, though now it seems obvious. A hypnotist isn't sending out magical brain-waves to put other people into trance. They only help us find that state within ourselves. We are the ones that are creating the bodily sensations and thoughts. That's why the more you trance you experience the better you get at it.

The most powerful way to hypnotize someone is through what is called covert hypnosis, which is also known as conversational hypnosis or Ericksonian hypnosis. With this method you can literally walk up to a complete stranger, hold a conversation with them and induce them into a trance.

Through hypnosis, you technically can influence the behaviour of others and lead them in a particular direction. You can do this in a way that they would normally resist. In general, it is a tool that increases suggestibility.

People may have heard of the 'sugar pill' illusion. This is where they are given a medication to solve a temporary illness; and claim to feel the medication taking effect. When in reality it was only a sugar pill, with no medicinal composition at all. Meaning of course... it is all in the mind.

Hypnosis can help you alter your subconscious to achieve and overcome your weight loss goals and obstacles. There are specific hypnosis techniques that were developed to help you stop smoking. You can learn to get the best performance from your body by using your mind.

Such exploration of the power of the mind is both intriguing and fascinating. The best way to explore this subject further is to visit our Hypnotic Underworld and develop these skills yourself.
 

Self Hypnosis

Andy Bolton
from the Underworld of Hypnosis

Ponzi Schemes, Auditors, Regulators, Credit Ratings, And Other Scams

There are honest people, and there are dishonest people, a whole spectrum. I like to think I am near the honest end, I would have worn a white hat in the old cowboy movies. And I've had the misfortune to have met a few from right up close to the other extreme, with the black hats. Most people wear hats of various shades of grey.

High finance is a business which encourages people to shift towards the dishonest end of the spectrum by putting temptation in their way, and the dishonest are drawn to this field by its quick and easy rewards. Nothing that I have ever seen in investment banking and fund management has impressed me as a disincentive to crooked behaviour, absolutely nothing.

 

To read the full article: please visit…

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